Investment market Hamburg 3Q2020: Proves resilient

Again in the 3rd quarter of 2020 the market for investments in commercial properties in Hamburg seemed largely unimpressed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. Indeed, the volume of transactions actually grew by 37 % year on year, with around 70 individual trades generating €3.6bn (2019: €2.7bn, 79 trades). In only two other years, 2007 and 2018, were even higher sales volumes recorded at the end of the 3rd quarter. Many players had adopted a wait and see attitude in the 2nd quarter, but in the 3rd quarter the market gathered so much momentum that commercial properties changed hands for more than €1.6bn between July and September.

“Because of the many economic imponderables, most investors decided quality was the safest option. Therefore, core real estate let to highly credit-worthy tenants was in great demand,” says Axel Steinbrinker, managing director of GPP-member Grossmann & Berger, adding, “So far, Germany has survived the recession brought on by the pandemic relatively unscathed. That is a major reason why investors remain eager to buy commercial properties in Hamburg. Even if the coronavirus pandemic drags on into the New Year, we expect to see an interesting rally in the final three months of this year.”

Investment market details Hamburg:  

• Ten transactions involving properties priced at over €100m (2019: 6) accounted for 55 % of the volume traded, and demonstrated the great demand for prime real estate in Hamburg.

• Irrespective of how work patterns might be changing, office properties remained investors’ favourite asset, accounting for 53 % of the volume traded. Whereas buyers are avoiding hotels (2 %), retail buildings, despite fallout from the lockdown period, were the second-biggest-selling asset with a 20 % share of the market. This is due to Quantum’s sale of two “Karstadt” buildings to Signa.

• In many cities, including Hamburg, there is a growing focus on prime locations. Close to one euro in two was spent on properties in Hamburg City district (44 %). Following in second place, Eppendorf sub-market accounted for 12 % of investments.

• Portfolio trades still comprised a considerable proportion of transactions at 36 %. Adding to earlier company and shareholding takeovers, the 3rd quarter saw portfolio trades such as AEW office properties, bought by Tristan, and the two “Karstadt” buildings already noted.

• Despite travel restrictions, international investors featured heavily on the Hamburg market. Their share of total trading rose to 41 % (2019: 18 %).

• Current uncertainties are inducing investors to put far greater faith in low-risk core real estate, thus putting further pressure on the prime yields on offices and logistics properties. However, yields on hotel and retail assets are expected to rise. 

Selected top transactions | investments in Hamburg | 1st to 3rd quarters of 2020 

*The purchase prices stated are based on publicly available data, where none is available an estimate is made; transactions occurring in the quarter dealt with in this report are highlighted

The complete market survey may soon be downloaded here.