Industrial market Hamburg 4Q2021: Year ends with third-highest result on record

It would seem that once every five years there is a remarkable surge on the market for industrial and logistics space in Hamburg. At the end of 2021 a take-up high of 636,000 m² was noted, the third-highest result seen in Hamburg and its environs since 2011 and 2016. 

“The final result was a third higher than the figure posted at the end of 2020. And this although the pandemic is still an issue, and despite disrupted supply chains and shortages of both materials and space. 2021 closed on a figure far above the ten-year average of 510,900 square metres,” says Felix Krumreich, consultant for industrial and logistics properties at Grossmann & Berger, a member of German Property Partners (GPP), in his summary.  

Hamburg investment market details: 

• In 2021 lettings reached the very high total of 557,100 m², unlike the prior year, when the figure was 237,600 m². Correspondingly, the owner-occupier ratio fell year on year from 51 % to 12 %.
• Only two owner-occupier transactions involving properties larger than 10,001 m² were noted in 2021, against seven contracts of this kind in 2020.  
• Three agreements comprised most of the 140,000 m² of take-up posted between October and December; an industrial firm took a lease for 60,000 m² of space in Hamburg South sub-market, another decided to rent 30,300 m² in the “Goodman” industrial estate in Seevetal and LFW, a logistics company, opted for 18,000 m² in Winsen. The largest rental agreement in 2021 was that signed by the aforementioned industrial firm.
• Although the market share (52 %) of properties in the size category of 10,001 m² or more hardly changed year on year, the number of agreements in this sector rose from nine to 16. A quarter of take-up was in properties sized from 5,001 to 10,000 m²; this sector accounted for 35 % a year ago.
• Against the 4th quarter of 2020 both the premium rent and the average rent had risen to new highs by the close of 2021. Rates increased by ten cents, the premium rent to €6.50/m²/month and the average rent to €5.30/m²/month. Essentially, this change came about because 51 % of take-up was no longer attributable to owner-occupiers but to tenants renting space in higher-priced premises costing over €5.51/m²/month. This sector comprised 42 % at the end of the 4th quarter of 2021.
• In 2021 the market returned to its traditional mix of industries and their relative take-up of space. Logistics and forwarding enterprises accounted for 47 % of the market, displacing trade/retail from the top slot which the sector occupied in 2020 with 34 % of the total. Trade/retail and manufacturing/industry posted almost equal shares of 26 % and 23 % respectively. Ten of the 16 agreements for more than 10,001 m² were signed by logistics and forwarding enterprises.
• In respect of agreements for over 10,001 m² of space, five leases were signed in Hamburg South sub-market and four in Hamburg East; accordingly, these two districts took the largest slice of the market at 27 % each. Year on year the trend towards leasing space in the environs reversed so that take-up within city limits grew from 45 % to 59 % of the market. Owing to two large agreements, the North West Environs sub-market comprised 17 % of the market.